95_Theses

It’s About the Future

the power of statistics

Posted by Citizen on July 5, 2007

There is a counter argument to this that makes my idea that garbage-in yields garbage-out null and void. Quite the opposite in fact, complete with illustrations explaining why garbage-in equals high precision and trustworthy info out. You be the judge. I have experience with people who are so enamoured by their statistical prowess that they have no practical common sense.

Once in a fabrication shop I saw a welder move a support for a beam that was going to have tons of pressure exerted on it. The welder could see from the drawing that the beam was located in the wrong place, and the crane would fail if it were installed as drawn. I literally heard an engineer tell the fabricator to move the beam back where he drew it. The welder tried to explain it to the engineer and the engineer said this: “You’re a welder working for low wages, I am a college educated engineer working for a high salary. You will put that beam where I drew it.” The welder said “OK”.

Do you need me to tell you that the second the lever was thrown on the hydraulics the beam, relocated to the specified place, broke under the stress, the crane fell into a tangled heap, and it was deposited on the scrap heap. Common sense 1, engineers 0.

Now if this were the only case in history that would be that, an anomaly that has no statistical significance. Unfortunately for the statistically inclined this is not an anomaly, it’s a prevalent pattern.

In fact another engineer in the same shop made a similar assertion of knowing it all. The company was building double scissors lifts to service the first fleet of Boeing 747 aircraft. Again a welder modified something and the engineer forced the welder to recant and make the item to the engineer’s specifications.

This time the welder put an over-travel stop on the rail that supported the platform and the engineer had it removed. “OK. Sure thing Boss.”

The airline executives showed up for the final demonstration and proof of concept before signing off on the big order. It was a wonderful and bright day, teams of scruffy low wage welders and herds of suits mingling with the white collar scientific engineering community. Roughly forty of the suits and engineers got onto the platform as the test weight, giddy as school boys at the carnival, and rode that lift to the top.

They rode it to the top and then some. They were about forty some feet off the ground when the platform screeched off the track past the place where the welder’s stop had been removed. The smartest guys in the business were clinging to the handrails and screaming to be rescued. That was something of a problem because the company didn’t have anything that could reach that high to get the smart guys off of their perch. A fire fighting ladder truck that didn’t have anything better to do drove in and save their day.

Based on the statistical power of large numbers, according to this explanation, we could add up all the other occurrences of equally stupid operations and come to the very precise conclusion that people enamoured of their own prowess with numbers cannot be trusted to come to a responsible conclusion, eh? The problem is obvious to the welder-class and the engineer class is oblivious. Who are ya gonna trust with the future? I know what the numbers are telling me, common sense 2, engineers 0..,

It’s not as though I am the only one to question the scam. Here’s a scientist whose guesses, added up with other scientist’s guesses, amount to a very precise refutation of the climate change scam.

According to Swedish paleogeophysicist Nils-Axel Mörner, who’s been studying and writing about sea levels for four decades, the scientists working for the IPCC have falsified data and destroyed evidence to incorrectly prove their point.

When you see that algore, for whom there was no controlling legal authority to prevent him from breaking U.S. election laws, and the U.N. for which there is also no controlling legal authority to prevent the massive sanction fraud or massive rape by UN troops, the idea that any sane human being would get on their bandwagon only proves Honest Abe’s dictum:

“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” –
Abraham Lincoln

Who is standing in line to be fooled by gore and the ‘united’ nations?

And a note to engineers, there are two types, and you know who you are. The type I mentioned cannot be confused with the engineers who know the beam is in the wrong place and the stop is in fact needed to keep the suits from going over the edge..,

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2 Responses to “the power of statistics”

  1. You made that all up, about the welders and the engineers, didn’t you? Or maybe somebody was pulling your leg.

    How do you go about testing whom to believe and whom not to?

  2. Citizen said

    Thanks for the comment. Not only did I not make up the bit about the welders and engineers, I tried hard not to embellish my recollection.

    Good question about whom to believe. I start with a strong balogna meter and add in strong street sense. I also have an intense distrust of crowds and politicians. When those two get mixed together the b-meter goes off the scale. Really, how likely is it that the most popular mania of the day is true? Not very..,

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